The funny thing about putting together an NFL playoffs fantasy football squad — assuming, as we are here, that your roster is locked through the entirety of the postseason — is that your best route to victory is by guessing right on which teams will get to the Super Bowl.
That makes this a very different exercise from regular season fantasy football leagues, in which you can expect different players to compete in more or less the same number of games. In that case, you are simply — okay, it’s never all that simple — trying to decide which player’s expected range of outcomes you prefer, factoring in perceived talent levels and team environments.
In the playoffs, some drafted or selected players will compete in just one game, while others will get as many as four chances to take the field. That discrepancy has a major effect on how many fantasy points they will score.
The issue, of course, is that no one knows which teams will advance or how far. Historically, though, the two highest-seeded teams in each conference have reached the Super Bowl at much greater rates than squads seeded third or lower. The rub there, for this exercise, is that most fantasy formats either won’t allow or will make it very difficult for you to grab a bunch of players from any one roster. You’ll probably have to identify a couple of lower-seeded teams that you think can advance at least one round, so you get two or more games from their players.
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My money this year is on the fifth-seeded Dallas Cowboys and the sixth-seeded New York Giants, who look like good bets to win their NFC first-round matchups against the No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the No. 3 Minnesota Vikings. To use one well-regarded data point, by Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA (which takes into account recent form while comparing every play from every team to a baseline standard), the Cowboys rank seventh and the Giants 18th — while the Bucs are 25th and the Vikings are a woeful 28th.
The analytics-driven website’s weighted DVOA also has the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills ranked first and second and well ahead of the competition, which jibes nicely with my sense that the second-seeded teams are poised to make deep postseason runs. Did you know that since the NFL went to a playoff seeding system for the 1975 season, only one Super Bowl (the 2018 season’s matchup of the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams) has featured a showdown between No. 2 seeds? I’d say it’s high time for that to happen again, and the Bills, in particular, would benefit from the fact that, should they reach the AFC championship game, they are assured of playing at home or at a neutral site.
Those predictions will be baked a bit into my rankings, as is a lean toward 49ers and Bills players over their counterparts from the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs because San Francisco and Buffalo, lacking a first-round bye, have a chance to play an extra game. Also of note: I am defaulting to half-PPR scoring. Now on (finally) with the rankings!
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Quarterbacks
Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa are out and their backups, Teddy Bridgewater and Tyler Huntley, are dealing with injuries. In fact, the Dolphins appear set to start a third-stringer, Skylar Thompson. Those situations negatively affect the outlook for the Dolphins’ and Ravens’ other skill position players.
1. Josh Allen, Bills
2. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
3. Jalen Hurts, Eagles
4. Joe Burrow, Bengals
5. Brock Purdy, 49ers
6. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
7. Dak Prescott, Cowboys
8. Justin Herbert, Chargers
9. Tom Brady, Buccaneers
10. Daniel Jones, Giants
11. Kirk Cousins, Vikings
12. Geno Smith, Seahawks
13. Tyler Huntley, Ravens
14. Skylar Thompson, Dolphins
15. Teddy Bridgewater, Dolphins
16. Anthony Brown, Ravens
Running backs
Christian McCaffrey is an obvious top choice here, but Jerick McKinnon ahead of Austin Ekeler? I’m just that much more confident in McKinnon playing multiple games, and Kansas City really leaned on him in last season’s playoffs.
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1. Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
2. Joe Mixon, Bengals
3. Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs
4. Austin Ekeler, Chargers
5. Saquon Barkley, Giants
6. Miles Sanders, Eagles
7. Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs
8. Tony Pollard, Cowboys
9. Dalvin Cook, Vikings
10. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys
11. Travis Etienne, Jaguars
12. Devin Singletary, Bills
13. Elijah Mitchell, 49ers
14. Jeff Wilson Jr., Dolphins
15. James Cook, Bills
16. Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers
17. Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
18. J.K. Dobbins, Ravens
19. Rachaad White, Buccaneers
20. Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles
21. Samaje Perine, Bengals
22. Boston Scott, Eagles
23. Gus Edwards, Ravens
24. Salvon Ahmed, Dolphins
25. Joshua Kelley, Chargers
Wide receivers
Minnesota can really stick it to me here, but given my playoff forecast, I just can’t see placing the uber-productive Justin Jefferson any higher, let alone the likes of Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn.
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1. Stefon Diggs, Bills
2. Ja’Marr Chase, Chiefs
3. A.J. Brown, Eagles
4. DeVonta Smith, Eagles
5. Deebo Samuel, 49ers
6. Justin Jefferson, Vikings
7. Tee Higgins, Bengals
8. CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys
9. Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers
10. Keenan Allen, Chargers
11. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs
12. Mike Evans, Buccaneers
13. Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
14. Gabe Davis, Bills
15. Kadarius Toney, Chiefs
16. Christian Kirk, Jaguars
17. Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
18. Tyler Boyd, Bengals
19. Tyler Lockett, Seahawks
20. DK Metcalf, Seahawks
21. Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins
22. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs
23. Zay Jones, Jaguars
24. Richie James, Giants
25. Joshua Palmer, Chargers
26. Isaiah Hodgins, Giants
27. Adam Thielen, Vikings
28. K.J. Osborn, Vikings
29. Mecole Hardman, Chiefs
30. Darius Slayton, Giants
31. Michael Gallup, Cowboys
32. Demarcus Robinson, Ravens
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33. Russell Gage, Buccaneers
35. Noah Brown, Cowboys
36. Marvin Jones, Jaguars
37. DeAndre Carter, Chargers
Tight ends
Travis Kelce towers above this group, with George Kittle also deserving of his own tier before a sharp drop to the rest.
1. Travis Kelce, Chiefs
2. George Kittle, 49ers
3. Dallas Goedert, Eagles
4. Dawson Knox, Bills
5. Dalton Schultz, Cowboys
6. T.J. Hockenson, Vikings
7. Mark Andrews, Ravens
8. Evan Engram, Jaguars
9. Hayden Hurst, Bengals
10. Gerald Everett, Chargers
11. Cade Otton, Buccaneers
12. Daniel Bellinger, Giants
13. Mike Gesicki, Dolphins
14. Isaiah Likely, Ravens
15. Noah Gray, Chiefs
16. Noah Fant, Seahawks
Defense/kickers
I’m lumping these positions together because, in this exercise, the value of both strongly derives from how many postseason appearances you think they’ll make. Sorry, Justin Tucker and guys named Jason.
1. Bills/Tyler Bass
2. 49ers/Robbie Gould
3. Eagles/Jake Elliott
4. Chiefs/Harrison Butker
5. Bengals/Evan McPherson
6. Cowboys/Brett Maher
7. Jaguars/Riley Patterson
8. Chargers/Cameron Dicker
9. Giants/Graham Gano
10. Vikings/Greg Joseph
11. Buccaneers/Ryan Succop
12. Ravens/Justin Tucker
13. Dolphins/Jason Sanders
14. Seahawks/Jason Myers
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